Climate Report

Additional time series data about climate change come in all the time. Here are some plots that I like to track.

I think that what is essential for this problem is a global consciousness,
a view that transcends our exclusive identifications with the generational
and political groupings into which by accident we have been born.

The solution to these problems requires a perspective that embraces the
planet and the future, because we are all in this greenhouse together. 

Carl Sagan, https://youtu.be/Wp-WiNXH6hI?t=985

Keeling Curve (Mauna Loa CO2)

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import rdtools

plt.rcParams['figure.dpi'] = 100

url = 'https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2/co2_weekly_mlo.csv'
df = pd.read_csv(url, skiprows=47, na_values=-999.99)
df.index = pd.to_datetime(df[['year', 'month', 'day']])

ppm_weekly = df['average']
ppm_daily = ppm_weekly.resample('d').interpolate()

_, _, calc_info = rdtools.degradation_year_on_year(ppm_daily)
yoy_changes = calc_info['YoY_values']

moving_avg = ppm_daily.rolling(365, center=True).mean()
ppm_deseasonalized = ppm_daily - moving_avg
grouper = ppm_deseasonalized.groupby(ppm_deseasonalized.index.dayofyear)
median_seasonality = grouper.median()
upper_seasonality = grouper.quantile(0.95)
lower_seasonality = grouper.quantile(0.05)

fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, sharex=True, figsize=(6, 6))

# plot this first because it has a shorter index
yoy_changes.plot(ax=axes[1])
yoy_changes.rolling(52, center=True).median().plot(ax=axes[1])
axes[1].set_xlabel(None)
axes[1].set_ylabel('Year-on-year change [%/yr]')
axes[1].grid()

moving_avg.plot(ax=axes[0])
ppm_daily.plot(ax=axes[0])
axes[0].set_ylabel('Dry CO$_2$ Fraction [ppm]')
axes[0].grid()

fig.tight_layout()
_images/report_3_0.png

EIA Monthly: Electric Power Sector

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

url = 'https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/csv.php?tbl=T07.02B'
df = pd.read_csv(url)
df = df.loc[~df['Description'].str.contains('Generation Total')]
df = df.loc[~df['YYYYMM'].astype(str).str.endswith('13')]
df['source'] = df['Description'].str.split(",").str[0].str.replace('Electricity Net Generation From ', '')
df['date'] = pd.to_datetime(df['YYYYMM'], format='%Y%m')
df2 = df.pivot(index='date', columns='source', values='Value')
df2 = df2.rename(columns={'Conventional Hydroelectric Power': 'Hydroelectric',
                          'Nuclear Electric Power': 'Nuclear'})
df2 = df2.replace('Not Available', np.nan).replace('Not Meaningful', np.nan).astype(float)
df2 = df2.loc[:, df2.max() > 5000]  # only keep the main players

fractions = 100 * df2.divide(df2.sum(axis=1), axis=0).clip(lower=0)

fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
df2.rolling(12, center=True).mean().plot(ax=ax, colormap='tab10')
ax.legend()
ax.set_ylabel('Million kWh')
fig.tight_layout()
df2.plot(ax=ax, alpha=0.2, colormap='tab10', legend=False)
plt.show()
_images/report_5_0.png 
fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 1, sharex=True, figsize=(6, 7))
fig.suptitle('Utility-Scale Solar Monthly Generation')

df2['Solar'].dropna().loc['2009':].plot(ax=axes[0])
axes[0].set_ylabel('Million kWh')

fractions['Solar'].loc['2009':].plot(ax=axes[1])
moving_average = fractions['Solar'].rolling(12).mean()
moving_average.loc['2009':].plot(ax=axes[1])
axes[1].set_ylabel('Fraction of total [%]')

yoy_change = moving_average - moving_average.shift(12)
yoy_change.loc['2009':].plot(ax=axes[2])
axes[2].set_ylabel('Year-on-year change [% of total]')

for ax in axes:
    ax.axvline('2017-02-01', ls='--', c='k')
    ax.grid(which='both')

fig.tight_layout()
_images/report_6_0.png 
fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 1, sharex=True, figsize=(6, 7))
fig.suptitle('Utility-Scale Wind Monthly Generation')

df2['Wind'].dropna().loc['2000':].plot(ax=axes[0])
axes[0].set_ylabel('Million kWh')

fractions['Wind'].loc['2000':].plot(ax=axes[1])
moving_average = fractions['Wind'].rolling(12).mean()
moving_average.loc['2000':].plot(ax=axes[1])
axes[1].set_ylabel('Fraction of total [%]')

yoy_change = moving_average - moving_average.shift(12)
yoy_change.loc['2000':].plot(ax=axes[2])
axes[2].set_ylabel('Year-on-year change [% of total]')

for ax in axes:
    ax.grid(which='both')

fig.tight_layout()
_images/report_7_0.png 
# reorder for plotting purposes
col_order = ['Nuclear', 'Hydroelectric', 'Wind', 'Solar',
             'Coal', 'Natural Gas', 'Petroleum']
fractions = fractions[col_order]
fractions.loc['2010-01':].plot.area(lw=0, figsize=(10, 4))
plt.ylabel('Share of total generation [%]')

handles, labels = plt.gca().get_legend_handles_labels()
plt.legend(reversed(handles), reversed(labels),
           loc='center right', bbox_to_anchor=(1.2, 0.5))
plt.tight_layout()
plt.grid()
_images/report_8_0.png 
clean = ['Solar', 'Wind', 'Hydroelectric', 'Nuclear']
clean_fraction = 100 * df2[clean].sum(axis=1) / df2.sum(axis=1)
clean_fraction.plot()
clean_fraction_rolling = 100 * (
    df2[clean].sum(axis=1).rolling(12, center=True).sum() /
    df2.sum(axis=1).rolling(12, center=True).sum()
)
clean_fraction_rolling.plot()
plt.ylabel('Clean Fraction [%]')
plt.tight_layout()
plt.grid()
_images/report_9_0.png 
fractions.assign(clean_fraction=clean_fraction).tail(24)
source Nuclear Hydroelectric Wind Solar Coal Natural Gas Petroleum clean_fraction
date
2020-01-01 22.938419 7.539520 8.689606 1.367871 19.967669 39.047303 0.449613 40.535415
2020-02-01 21.812604 8.518934 9.625659 1.826286 18.421949 39.397971 0.396597 41.783483
2020-03-01 21.925919 8.114045 10.036378 2.157457 17.209307 40.105445 0.451450 42.233799
2020-04-01 22.447127 8.750506 11.277171 2.981203 15.263376 38.840032 0.440585 45.456007
2020-05-01 22.312202 10.352296 9.833078 3.320763 15.983966 37.772547 0.425149 45.818339
2020-06-01 20.033423 8.318162 8.983890 2.854431 19.335395 40.016047 0.458653 40.189906
2020-07-01 17.689461 6.796157 5.809551 2.683980 22.752788 43.843092 0.424971 32.979149
2020-08-01 18.117107 6.094032 6.030627 2.428277 23.819808 43.091396 0.418754 32.670042
2020-09-01 20.738172 5.871980 7.289020 2.420934 21.431536 41.896269 0.352089 36.320106
2020-10-01 19.958934 6.301916 9.655205 2.365077 19.950981 41.385050 0.382838 38.281132
2020-11-01 21.682672 7.306161 11.589323 2.009788 21.327548 35.619953 0.464556 42.587944
2020-12-01 21.412255 6.560907 9.769556 1.550087 23.934337 36.282983 0.489874 39.292806
2021-01-01 21.568254 7.726720 9.123949 1.708809 24.358307 35.057843 0.456117 40.127733
2021-02-01 20.232108 6.918272 8.599784 2.047226 28.088203 33.377148 0.737259 37.797390
2021-03-01 21.524656 7.253476 13.464893 3.109543 20.804169 33.388248 0.455015 45.352568
2021-04-01 20.613114 6.896434 13.027281 3.881814 19.333900 35.859000 0.388457 44.418643
2021-05-01 20.953200 7.500017 11.065173 4.034643 20.960580 35.080056 0.406332 43.553032
2021-06-01 18.522126 6.721281 7.438509 3.297800 24.347450 39.326462 0.346372 35.979716
2021-07-01 17.781657 5.687010 5.549288 3.056849 26.115728 41.439960 0.369507 32.074804
2021-08-01 17.557164 5.270914 6.747998 2.965353 25.629573 41.366647 0.462351 32.541429
2021-09-01 19.442799 5.389966 8.625739 3.325565 23.629964 39.140676 0.445292 36.784069
2021-10-01 18.888144 5.939761 10.723468 3.043927 20.607307 40.797393 NaN 38.595299
2021-11-01 21.006165 6.816418 12.023371 2.615439 18.956266 38.065861 0.516480 42.461393
2021-12-01 21.970067 7.933967 12.594438 1.959319 18.445046 36.661973 0.435191 44.457791

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'2022-04-09'
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